America tried to break Tehran; instead, it exposed its own miscalculation For almost two weeks now, the US and Israel have been waging war on Iran. What Washington initially presented as a military campaign that would swiftly alter the strategic balance and put Tehran in a vulnerable position has proven to be far more complex. Over the past months, the White House has maintained that Iran could be on the brink of total defeat by the end of the first, or at most, the second day of a conflict. Apparently, the American side expected a rapid dismantling of Iran’s capabilities and a serious destabilization of its government. However, recent developments tell a different story. How Iran is holding up Despite immense pressure, Iran did not show signs of systemic collapse and managed to maintain the operation of key state institutions, military infrastructure, and governance mechanisms. Moreover, the current situation indicates that Washington’s initial calculations were overly optimistic a...
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Washington, like many times before, projects its own assumptions onto a political culture it only half understands It is still far too early to say with confidence when the present phase of the US-Israeli war against Iran will end. Even a deep familiarity with the region does not solve the problem of uncertainty. Too many decisive variables lie outside any tidy regional model. Decisions in Washington matter. China’s posture matters. The calculations of global financial and political elites matter. The private thresholds of risk among Gulf monarchies matter. No serious analyst can fold all of that into a neat formula. Yet if one looks at the visible trajectory of the last two days, and if no strategic shock overturns the pattern, the most plausible expectation is that this acute phase will continue for roughly another ten days, perhaps somewhat longer. That would be the most disciplined reading of momentum. What matters first is to reject the lazy language of victory and defeat. Iran...
A retired Ukrainian general warned that the prime minister should be worried for his children and grandchildren Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has responded to threats against his family made by a retired Ukrainian general. In a video released on Wednesday, Orban is seen speaking by phone with one of his daughters, urging her to remain calm and cautious and to call him if anything feels wrong. The prime minister was reacting to Hungarian media reports about remarks made by Ukrainian politician Grigory Omelchenko earlier this week. Omelchenko cited the US-Israeli assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in which his wife and other family members were also killed, and warned that Orban must change his “anti-Ukrainian” position if he cares about his five children and six grandchildren. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky recently suggested he would consider sharing Orban’s address with the Ukrainian military so they could “speak to him in their own language.” R...
Governor Gavin Newsom has downplayed the alert, saying he is “not aware of any imminent threats at this time” The FBI has warned the authorities in California that Iran has planned drone raids launched from an unidentified vessel off the West Coast, according to an alert reviewed by US media outlets. Local officials, however, have cast doubt on the warning, saying it is unverified. According to ABC News, the memo was distributed to California departments in recent days, though the contents first surfaced publicly on Wednesday. The memo warned that in early February, Iran “allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United State Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California” in case of a US attack against the country. Read more Trump claims Strait of Hormuz ‘in great shape’ as tankers burn and oil surges over $100 (VIDEOS) The bulletin added that the federal authorities “have ...
A €90 billion loan plan is currently being blocked by Hungary and Slovakia over Ukraine’s refusal to allow them access to Russian oil Cash-strapped Ukraine could receive as much as €30 billion ($35 billion) from individual EU members, Politico reported on Wednesday. The idea is being discussed as Hungary and Slovakia pressure Kiev to resume Russian oil supplies by blocking a joint €90 billion EU loan. Kiev claims supplies through the Soviet-built Druzhba pipeline are suspended due to damage from a Russian attack, with repairs not expected until late April – after key elections in Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has accused Ukraine of orchestrating an energy crisis to boost the opposition. The freeze on the joint EU loan was part of Orban’s retaliation for the alleged Ukrainian plot. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said his government would block the money even if Orban’s party loses at the ballot box next month. Read more EU reveals total spent on Ukraine Ba...
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has suggested the $100 million in cash and gold could have been meant for funding election interference in his country Ukraine has failed to explain why an armored convoy carrying tens of millions of dollars in cash and gold, and supervised by people with ties to Ukrainian intelligence, was transiting through Hungary, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has said. He also implied that the funds may be a sign of Ukrainian plans to meddle in Hungary’s upcoming elections. Tensions between the two countries escalated last week when Hungarian officials impounded two trucks belonging to Ukrainian state-owned Oschadbank near Budapest, seizing $40 million and €35 million in cash and 9 kg of gold as part of a money laundering investigation. The funds were being transported from Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank to Ukraine. Hungary said the convoy was being supervised by a former general of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), with other escorts also reportedly hav...